The last time a rookie QB class had this much hype was in 2018. The class of 2018 was highlighted by Baker Mayfield and a slept on Lamar Jackson who were taken with the 1st and last pick of the 1st round respectively. Mayfield has showed promise but probably has another year or two to take the Browns to the next level before they start looking for replacements and Lamar Jackson has been a top 10 Quarterback the past two seasons. However, the star QB of 2018 turned out to be Wyoming product Josh Allen who exploded in 2020. Allen was tied for the lead in Approximate Value that he brought to his team with Aaron Donald, a stat from Pro Football Reference. He also was 6th in passing yards, 5th in passing touchdowns, 3rd in QBR while leading the Bills to the Conference Championship.

So this group of 2021 Quarterbacks is supposed to be better than that. Obviously we have the golden child Trevor Lawrence who was slated to go 1st since his first snap at Clemson but then we have the number 2 pick in Wilson, the number 3 pick in Trey Lance and the number 11 pick in Justin Fields, all of whom their teams believe are going to be the franchise quarterback. Not to mention Mac Jones who was rumored to go number 3, slid down to 15 to the Patriots.

But who will have the biggest impact in year 1 for their squad? I broke down these rookies into 4 categories. 1 is the weapons around them, obviously the wide receivers but then also the tight ends, and running backs who rookie QBs rely a lot on. 2nd is the coach and organization that are super important in how they handle young players, especially quarterbacks. 3rd is the offensive line which is just as important as the first two as we saw with Burrow last year getting hurt and with no time to throw when he wasn’t. And lastly is the opportunity which means how good of a team are they going into for playoff birth and will they even be the starter for the season.

1. Mac Jones 8.5

Weapons: 6.49

Coach/Organization: 10

O-Line: 9

Opportunity: 8.5

Mac Jones is a perfect fit for the Patriots as he resembles Brady’s big frame and big arm. He obviously went to a great organization but one who failed to make the postseason in 2020. It remains to be seen if Jones will beat out Cam Newton for the week 1 starter but it doesn’t seem impossible. Newton played terribly last season as far stats throwing just 8 touchdowns passes in 15 games but led a team with low talent to 7-8 when he was in the lineup. Even if Jones doesn’t start week one I think he will be the starter at some point this season and close the season as the starter. For that reason I gave him an 8.5 for Opportunity and it would’ve been a 9 but I still think the team may struggle to make the playoffs with Buffalo and Miami in their division. As far as weapons, the Patriots probably have the worst of the bunch. Their Wide Receivers consist of N’keal Harry at the number 1, Kendrick Bourne at the 2, and either Devin Smith or Isaiah Zuber at the 3. Oof. If I was just ranking receivers corps out of 10 I would maybe give them a 3 and the worst in the league. They do make up for it with top 10 tight end depth in the league though with Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Not to mention James White and Rex Burkhead are some of the best pass catching running backs in the league.

2. Trey Lance 8.375

Weapons: 8.5

O-Line: 9.5

Coach/Organization: 9.5

Opportunity: 6

There’s really only two things that could hold back Trey Lance in his rookie season. The first being the 49er’s have an insanely tough division and to make a big impact on the 49er’s organization you have to lead your team to the playoffs at least. The Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks all could be top 10 teams in the NFL and there isn’t room for all 4 of them to be top 10 or make the playoffs. The 2nd is Jimmy G, who will get a chance to start the season and if the 9ers are rolling, Lance may not even start one game. For these reasons I had to give him a 6 in opportunity which hurt his overall impact grade. As far as the O-line and coach, it’s just about as good as it gets in the NFL. His weapons could be lethal as well, with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk having some of the best ability in the NFL to run after the catch and a top 3 tight end in the league in George Kittle. Lance is also very inexperienced playing at a lower level college and only playing 1 game in his final season while starting only 17 games total. His numbers were insane in college throwing 30 touchdowns and only 1 interception and running for 1325 yards and 18 touchdowns. But he is definitely a boom or bust type of guy in the NFL based on his lack of film and experience with higher level talent that we have seen.

3. Trevor Lawrence 7.875

Weapons: 7.5

Coach/Organization: 7.5

O-Line: 7.5

Opportunity: 9

The number 1 pick in 2021 will definitely have the opportunity to make a big impact in his first season. The question is how will his surrounding team improve from last seasons 1-15 record. If they win 7+ games out of 17 this year it could be said he had a big impact and his impact is not as dependent on the Jaguars making the playoffs such as the Patriots or 49ers. I gave him a 9 for opportunity because I believe that this team could possibly make the Wildcard with the Titans winning the division and the Jags will be able to feast on the Texans and the Colts may take a step backwards from last year. I give them a 15% chance of making the Wildcard but again, Lawrence could make an impact without them making the NFL playoffs. As for weapons, the Jaguars may have the best tight end in the league in Tim Tebow (jokes) but do have a solid wide receiver group they put together in Marvin Jones, DJ Chark, and Laviska Shenault. As far as the coach and organization, it is hard to say what Urban Meyer will do in the NFL but obviously was very successful in college. Lawrence should start at least 14 of 17 games if not all of them as the Jags are without a solid starting QB. No disrespect to Gardner Minshew but his overall record as a starter is 7-13 and last year was 1-7. And it’s not like he is a veteran who can handle the load while Lawrence learns as Minshew is just 25.

4. Justin Fields 7.125

Weapons: 7

Coach/Organization: 7.5

O-Line: 6

Opportunity: 8

Fields is another guy like Mac Jones who slid in the 2021 NFL Draft. Many people had Justin Fields slated to go to the 49er’s at pick 3 but ended up falling to 11. The opportunity is definitely there as the Bears were 8-8 last season which is better than I would have thought when researching for this. Could their only problem have been at QB? Another big bonus is the likelihood that Aaron Rodgers will sit out for some of the season or all of it or be traded. In that case the Vikings and Bears would fight it out with the Rodgersless Packers to win the division and I would think it would be anyones to win. One thing that may hurt Fields impact during his rookie campaign however would be one of the veterans between Nick Foles and Andy Dalton winning and keeping the starting spot. Even if Dalton wins it they may go to Foles first before Fields. In the scenario that Fields does get to play at least 10 games he could make a solid impact on the Bears playoff hopes and for that reason I gave him an 8 on opportunity. As far as weapons, the Bears come in slightly ahead of the Patriots. I’m worried Allen Robinson will be traded or sit out and that’s why I gave them a 6.5, otherwise Robinson and Darnell Mooney are solid options with Jimmy Graham and Cole Kmet as Tight Ends and Tarik Cohen catching passes out of the backfield.

5. Zach Wilson 6.25

Weapons: 6.5

Coach/Organization: 7.5

O-Line: 5

Opportunity: 6

As much as I wanted to grade the Jet’s weapons lower than the Patriots I couldn’t bring myself to do it as the Pats two best receivers would be number 3 or lower on every other team in the league. They seem to have bundled a bunch of number 2 or 3 guys from other teams are expecting one receiver to come out as a number one but this could lead to them all just getting lost. Corey Davis has the best opportunity to prove himself as a number one receiver but to this point has mostly been a deep threat guy and thrived last year on the Titans due to AJ Brown getting most of the attention and teams stacking the box against Derrick Henry. Additionally, their tight end depth has to be bottom 5 in the league. Chris Herndon has showed some promise but had less than 300 yards receiving last year. Alright, now let’s get into Wilson actually. Wilson had a great junior season but I worry a little about his production as his freshman and sophomore season where he played 9 games each season, he threw for just 12 and 11 touchdowns and had 11 touchdowns 9 interceptions his sophomore season. However, he does have the ability run with 10 rushing touchdowns and 254 yards his junior year which should help keep him protected a bit more than Burrow. The organization was arguably the worst in the NFL last year and just did a major rehaul by trading their starting QB and getting a new first time head coach in Robert Saleh. Wilson should be able to start every game of the season which helps his opportunity but most people pick them to win less than 6 games and how big of an opportunity do you have to make a big impact if your team only wins 5 games?